Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • North Macedonia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Montenegro
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Czechia
  • Andorra
  • Switzerland

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $559,902$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,755$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,429.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,429.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $544,147$ on 2020-11-23

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,582,616$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,131$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,984.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,984.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,389,109$ on 2020-11-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,431,795$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50,453$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,468.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $796,849$ on 2020-11-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,531,267$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55,327$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,994.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,994.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,472,607$ on 2020-11-23

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,195,940$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49,312$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,453.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,453.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,988,458$ on 2020-11-23

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,127$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,546$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,522.8}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 313.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,522.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,687$ on 2020-11-23

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,553$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,342$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,451$ on 2020-11-23

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,618$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155,965.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 310.9)}}\) (asimptote \(155,965.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $444$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,364.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 278.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,364.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,143$ on 2020-11-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 84%
Czechia recovered 56%
Andorra recovered 37%
Switzerland recovered 36%
Armenia recovered 28%
Slovakia recovered 16%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,289$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 25.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $198$ on 2020-11-23

Czechia⮸

Population $10,708,981$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $496,638$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,360$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $83,296$ on 2020-11-23

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,304$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 25.5)}}\) (asimptote \(56.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $823$ on 2020-11-23

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $300,352$ on 2020-11-23

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,222$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,156.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,156.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89,430$ on 2020-11-23